Thursday, May 3, 2007

Some predictions

Because bloggers have nothing better to do than make predictions about happenings that will be over in a mere matter of hours.

I am referring, of course, to the Republican Presidential debate tonight. I make no predictions about who will "win," because as with last week's Democratic debate, winning is hard to define. For Giuliani, is "winning" simply not blowing it? For Mr. Unknown Duncan Hunter (and Ron Paul, and Tom Tancredo and Tommy Thompson and Jim Gilmore, for that matter), is "winning" simply getting some his name out there? It's too early for any candidate to really be trying to "win," in the conventional sense of knocking out the other guys and making broad, sweeping policy proposals.

So, what is there left to predict? Well, I think it might be interesting to see which Republicans play the various roles that we saw being played last week by the Democrats. For instance, I think Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo (and perhaps to a lesser extent Jim Gilmore) will play the role of Dennis Kucinich/Mike Gravel (i.e. the guy who knows he has no chance, but for whatever reason - my guess is for his own vanity - wants "his views represented"). Sam Brownback will play the role of Joe Biden (i.e. the relatively well-known sleazeball who represents the more extreme side of his party. Although, a part of me thinks Brownback might have some sort of a chance, whereas Biden has none.) I think Mike Huckabee and Tommy Thompson (and perhaps Duncan Hunter, as well) will play the role of Chris Dodd/Bill Richardson (i.e. the respectable but relatively unknown statesman trying to make a name or himself). And, of course, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney will be the Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards of the Republican debate (not necessarily in that order, though).

You may say "Flyntz, this doesn't really say much." And you're right. I don't know who will say what, but I think behavior is just as interesting as content. And I think we will see certain candidates exhibiting certain behaviors that ought to be eerily familiar to us.

Although, I'm not really known for making great predictions; I once predicted that John Kerry would win the 2004 election by 30+ electoral votes. So, don't trust me; just watch and find out what happens. Expect more thoughts on the debate tonight or tomorrow.

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