Thinking about Hillary.

Larry Sabato over at the Crystal Ball has a fantastic post entitled "The Hillary Dilemma." A lot of this post is sort of stating the obvious, but I think people need to hear it over and over again.

There is something about Hillary--the person, not the politician--that upsets and repels tens of millions of Americans. Fairly or not, she is seen as cold, calculating, and ruthless, an off-putting combination of characteristics.

Indeed, this has led to some rather frightening polls where she is concerned.

ABC News Poll - April 18, 2007
Definitely would not support:
Clinton	45%
Obama	36
Edwards	35

ABC News Poll - April 18, 2007
Definitely would not support (inds. only):
Clinton	45%
Obama	29
Edwards	39

Gallup Poll - May 24, 2007
Favorable/unfavorable (all adults):
Clinton	53% / 45%
Obama	55 / 20
Edwards	56 / 24

Gallup/USA Today Poll - June 5, 2007
Favorable/Unfavorable (all adults):
Clinton	46% / 50%
Obama	53 / 25
Edwards	44 / 32

So, even though she is the front-runner (and pretty overwhelmingly so according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll) among the Democratic contenders, a lot of people hate her. So, if she does happen to win the Democratic nomination, this is a very bad way to start a general election campaign. As Sabato points out,

The final several percent of swing voters needed to get Hillary Clinton over the top in the general election will vote for her only with the greatest reluctance, more as a way to stop a Republican than as an endorsement of her. That is a shaky way to start a Presidency.

So, if somehow the Republican tide turns and people stop hating them (or one of the candidates actually has enough guts to distance himself from the Party), Clinton's campaign is on very shaky grounds. Her campaign slogan might as well be "I'm not a Republican!" And we saw how well that worked in 2004...

And a Hillary presidency would be troubling simply from the standpoint of democracy.

How is it that the country is on the verge of filling its highest office for the sixth consecutive term from one of two families? That every President from 1989 to 2017 may be a Bush or a Clinton is a national disgrace. What has happened to the American Republic?

I don't know, but I truly hope that Democratic voters are wise enough to see these issues and vote for Obama instead.

On the Falwell Legacy

Most people would probably suggest that Jerry Falwell's legacy would involve making America more aware of the fundamentalist sect of Christianity and bringing aspects of that belief system into American politics.

While that is probably true, I think there is more to consider. Falwell's legacy, in terms of longevity, involves directing American politics toward the middle - where it belongs. In the short term (1980's - now), American politics has seen more "Christian values" (I put it in quotes because to suggest that Falwell and Co. represent Christian values is laughable). There's no denying that. But, I think his power over the Republican party has caused "average" Americans to feel abandoned by the Republican party. Or, as Larry Sabato put it:

Falwell and his fellow fundamentalist preachers have given the national Republican Party too conservative a cast on many social issues. Some Red states are turning "Purple" because of it.

Virginia, for example, is now a "purple" state. The conventional wisdom tells us that the Washington, DC suburbs in Northern Virginia are growing, bringing in more liberal voters. I don't doubt the truth of that, but I think this explanation ignores that the Republican party is turning even farther to the right. So, perhaps the states aren't changing; perhaps the Republican party is changing.

Or both.

But, anyway, I predict a Democratic victory in the 2008 presidential election and small Democratic growths in the Senate and the House. Certainly, the war in Iraq can explain these probable victories, but I don't think we should ignore the influence of Falwell.

Indeed, Falwell and Co., by turning the Republican party too far to the right, will allow Democratic victories in 2008 and years to come. Until the Republican Party reorients itself toward the middle (or the Democratic party steers too far to the left, which it is bound to do), I predict a Democrat-controlled government. Despite what conservatives like to say, Americans are a moderate bunch. So, when either party veers too far off the moderate course, they get punished.

So, thanks Jerry!