Friday, May 4, 2007

A Bit of Polling Analysis

Giuliani's in trouble. Big trouble.

Despite being the most popular candidate from either party in the race (he enjoys a high 60% - 38% favorability rating), he is now tied (at 45% - 45%) with Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical match-up. Clinton, though, only has a 50% - 49% favorability rating. To make things even more interesting, let's look at the "would definitely vote against" statistic. 34% of respondents would definitely vote against Giuliani, but a whopping 48% of respondents would vote against Hillary. As a side note, they share a similar "definitely vote for" statistic: 29% for Giuliani and 30% for Hillary.

So why in the world is someone so seemingly likable tied with someone so seemingly polarizing? It seems that the undecideds (i.e. the 22% remainder who neither said they would definitely vote for nor against Hillary) are swinging toward Hillary, which is bizarre, given Giuliani's whole "America's Mayor" edge.

I don't have a ready explanation, except for this: Americans are fed up with Republicans, even the moderate, likable ones with an unassailable flag to wrap themselves in (after all, no one will call Giuliani on it when he references 9/11 out of nowhere). I know it is early, but these sorts of poll numbers bode well for the Democrats.

Thanks to Rasmussen Reports for the polls.

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