A New Contender for the Republican Nomination

Some people think Fred Thompson is the hot new thing in the race for the Republican nomination. However, they are overlooking a new contender who has surged into the lead. Who is this dark horse, this man of mystery? Is it Ron Paul? After all, Paul, the anti-war libertarian, has received more than half of all campaign contribution from members of the military to Republican candidates:

52.53% Ron Paul
35.4% McCain
7.9% Romney
5.2% Giuliani
2.2% Hunter
2.6% Others

Shocking, no? Sadly, Paul still lingers at the bottom of the actual polls. He is not the dark horse of which I speak. Instead, I'm talking about "None of the above." That's right. According to the latest AP-Ipsos poll, almost 25% percent of Republicans chose "None of the above" when asked which candidate they prefer. That's higher than Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain, or any of the other Republican hopefuls. I can only hope that Mr. "None of the above" has the cajones to withstand the inevitable barrage of negative attacks that are sure to follow the release of these new numbers. Good luck, my friend!

Obama, Thompson take lead in South Carolina

African-America support has pushed Barack Obama in front of Hillary Clinton, 34% to 25%, in the latest Mason-Dixon poll in South Carolina. John Edwards is in third with 12%, and 24% of respondents are undecided. (Maybe they're going to break for Mike Gravel! Don't laugh... haven't you seen his new avant-garde campaign ad?
'Nuff said.)

Meanwhile, Fred Thompson has taken the lead on the Republican side, leading Rudy Giuliani 25% to 21%, despite the fact that he has yet to officially declare his candidacy. Mitt Romney is third with 11%. McCain really does look like he's finished, polling a paltry 7%.

Newsweek: Bush's approval rating at 28%

That's the lowest in a generation, and he's taking the GOP's 2008 candidates down with him.

A Bit of Polling Analysis

Giuliani's in trouble. Big trouble.

Despite being the most popular candidate from either party in the race (he enjoys a high 60% - 38% favorability rating), he is now tied (at 45% - 45%) with Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical match-up. Clinton, though, only has a 50% - 49% favorability rating. To make things even more interesting, let's look at the "would definitely vote against" statistic. 34% of respondents would definitely vote against Giuliani, but a whopping 48% of respondents would vote against Hillary. As a side note, they share a similar "definitely vote for" statistic: 29% for Giuliani and 30% for Hillary.

So why in the world is someone so seemingly likable tied with someone so seemingly polarizing? It seems that the undecideds (i.e. the 22% remainder who neither said they would definitely vote for nor against Hillary) are swinging toward Hillary, which is bizarre, given Giuliani's whole "America's Mayor" edge.

I don't have a ready explanation, except for this: Americans are fed up with Republicans, even the moderate, likable ones with an unassailable flag to wrap themselves in (after all, no one will call Giuliani on it when he references 9/11 out of nowhere). I know it is early, but these sorts of poll numbers bode well for the Democrats.

Thanks to Rasmussen Reports for the polls.